After a brilliant quarter, stock companies face uncertainties in the country

The electricity sector was the one that made the most profits in the second half of the year, according to consultancy firm Economatica. Photo: Marcello Casal Jr / Agência Brasil

Listed non-financial companies followed the recovery trend in the second half of the year, performed well and ended the period with a net profit of R $ 613.8 billion, 47.3% higher than the same period in 2020. net profit was multiplied by 11, reaching R $ 74.3 billion, according to consulting firm Economatica. Data does not include giants Vale and Petrobras. For the second half of the year, however, the scenario is more uncertain.

The number of listed companies in the second half of the year was solid, underlines XP Investimentos – 71% of companies monitored on the Ibovespa recorded operating profits (Ebitda or cash generation) in line or above expectations.

“The second quarter of this year was marked by the reduction of tax risks, the improvement of Covid-19 data, with a drop in the occupancy rate of hospitals and the number of deaths, the continuation of vaccination and data better than expected, ”write XP strategists Fernando Ferreira and Jennie Li.

The results of listed companies contrast with the economy as a whole. According to the IBGE, in the second quarter of the year, the Brazilian gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.1% compared to the first.

According to Inter bank, after the end of the balance sheet season for the second quarter of 2021, expectations have been confirmed given the good expectations for corporate results, reflected in the evolution of revenues and the recovery of margins.

For the second half, the outlook is not so clear. According to the financial institution, there is doubt about the uncertainties of the local scenario, in a context of escalating costs and inflationary impacts, as well as political noise and fiscal risk.

“As for the results of the companies, they should continue to show an evolution of the incomes, but suffering a little more from the pressure of the costs in the chain and the rise in the interest rates”, underline Rafaela Vitória and Gabriela Joubert, of the Inter research. division.

Economatica points out that almost all segments recorded profits in the second quarter. The exception was education, which saw its loss drop from 390 million reais in the second quarter of 2020 to 66 million reais.

Electricity companies were the main highlight, with a profit of 11.51 billion reais, 6.9% more than the same period last year. The second best result came from companies in the pulp and paper segment, which recorded a profit of R $ 10.7 billion. At the same time last year, they had recorded a loss of 2.49 billion reais.

Outlook for the 3rd quarter

The Interbank notes that the second half of the year has started with stability in view of GDP growth in 2021 – currently at 5.22%, according to the Central Bank (CB) Focus report. And, despite the positive development of pandemic indicators, uncertainty about the performance of the global economy in the second half of the year is increasing.

Frederico Loss, d’Allez Invest, points out that companies performed well in the second quarter. And for the third, he believes segments such as physical retail, tourism and shopping malls should benefit due to less restrictive measures and the speed of vaccination.

Another segment that could have positive results, according to him, is that of agricultural and mining commodities. The loss highlights that the price of raw materials is high, due to strong demand, and benefits from the devaluation of the real against the dollar. But the water crisis raises some concerns.

“The current scenario points to a continued recovery in the service sector, as mobility approaches pre-pandemic levels and consumer confidence increases, while growth in retail and industry may be expected. be constrained by the normalization of consumption standards, due to supply bottlenecks and rising prices, and the agricultural sector will continue to face adverse weather conditions in the coming months, ”the analysts write of Inter.

No more worries about the results

It is not just the energy issue that is causing concern. Two other factors that could impact the situation in the coming weeks are the advancement of the Delta variant, Covid-19 and tax issues.

Loss points out that it is difficult to predict what will happen in terms of the impacts of the variants. “So far, no social restriction measures have been taken. The problem is if there is an increase in the number of cases.

Inter points out that a risk that has intensified in recent weeks is tax risk. The possibility of payment in installments of court orders, which total 89 billion reais, the possible extension of the Bolsa Família program and the uncertain impacts of the income tax reform have put pressure on financial conditions, raising rates. of future interest and preventing the appreciation of.

The new IR rules have been approved by the House and will now be discussed in the Senate. The estimate of the Committee of State and Federal District Finance Secretaries (Comsefaz) calculates that, as things stand, the reform results in a loss of R $ 41.3 billion in public sector revenue. Most of this loss would remain with the Union (22.1 billion reais).

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