After further review, Caged began to show a decline in formal employment in 2020. | Photo: Marcelo Andrade / Arquivo / Gazeta do Povo
The government revised for the second time in less than a month the data on formal employment in 2020. With this, instead of signaling an increase in job creation, official statistics began to show a reduction of formal employment.
Earlier this year, the new General Register of Employed and Unemployed People (Novo Caged) reported that the country created nearly 143,000 formal jobs in 2020, after updating layoffs. More recently, at the beginning of November, the generation of vacancies from last year was revised and the positive balance was reduced to 76,000. Now, with the new revision, the statistic shows that there have been more layoffs than new hires last year, with a negative balance of 191,500 vacancies.
The revisions are caused by the incorporation of 2020 data sent late by companies. And they reinforce the impression – on the part of some labor market specialists – that last year’s layoff data might be underestimated. Among other problems, it is suspected that many companies have closed their doors and have not informed the government of the layoffs.
The strangeness to Caged’s data was also based on the deviation from figures from the IBGE’s Pnad Contínua survey, which uses a different methodology and which, since 2020, already shows a decline in formal employment. . According to analysts, the reality of the job market is likely to lie halfway between Caged’s “euphoria” and Pnad’s “disaster”.
“Both data have potential issues and we can’t be sure if this is actually happening. [o registrado] or not, ”said Rodolpho Tobler, of the Brazilian Institute of Economics of the Getulio Vargas Foundation (Ibre / FGV), in Gazeta do Povo in June. The institution’s polls indicated that the market was not as negative as Pnad shows, nor as positive as the Caged scenario.
The – hitherto positive – data of the formal market in 2020 was a cause for great celebration by the Minister of the Economy, Paulo Guedes, and his team, as the figures showed the resilience of employment in the midst of a decrease of 4, 1% of the crude. Domestic product (GDP), the worst since 1990.
The government attributed this good performance to measures to combat the crisis, including the program which reduced wages and hours in exchange for maintaining jobs.