Financial market raises inflation forecast to 5.56% in 2022

Headquarters of the Central Bank in Brasilia | Photo: Marcello Casal JrAgência Brasil

The financial market again raised its inflation forecast for this year. The general index of consumer prices (IPCA) is expected to end 2022 with a high of 5.56%. Last week, the projection estimated that the IPCA would reach 5.50%. The data was released by the Central Bank on Monday (21) in the Focus report. The bulletin brings together the forecasts of more than 100 market institutions for the main economic indicators.

The projection for 2022 is above the ceiling of the 5% inflation target, given the tolerance band of 1.5 percentage points from the center of the target, from 3.5 %, to the top. For 2023, inflation is expected to reach 3.5%. The Selic, the base interest rate, is projected at 12.25% at the end of 2022 and at 8.0% in 2023.

The estimate for gross domestic product (GDP) in 2022 remained at 0.30%. For 2023, the midpoint of GDP expansion expectations remained at 1.50%. For 2024, it remained at 2%.

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