The Brazilian hydrological scenario has deteriorated according to the XP assessment, but the risk of energy rationing is only 5.5%. Photo: Fabio Rodrigues Pozzebom / Agência Brasil
A report prepared by analysts at consulting firm XP points out that the Brazilian hydrological scenario has worsened, with reservoir levels below expectations in July. With this, the probability of rationing in the next 12 months, calculated by the company, fell from 3% to 5.5%.
According to analysts Maíra Maldonado and Victor Burke, the difference “can be explained by the decrease in the natural energy of the tributaries [quantidade de água que chega às hidrelétricas] and a higher margin of error, partially offset by a drop in demand and hydroelectric production. ”During the month, there was a slight increase in electricity consumption, by 2.0% (at above the same month of the previous year), however, demand was 3% lower than XP estimates, which is considered positive under the current situation.
During this time, the level of the reservoirs continues to drop. It reached 37% of its maximum capacity in July against 39% in June. XP estimates that the National Interconnected System (SIN) reservoirs will reach 15% levels in November 2021, but without the need for energy rationing in the next twelve months, as there is enough heat capacity to avoid “more dramatic measures” , says the report. In the model applied by XP, the heat capacity utilization in the August to December window increased to 72% from 58% in the previous assessment, with a higher heat distribution to maintain healthy reserve levels.