Headquarters of the Central Bank in Brasilia | Photo: Marcello Casal Jr / Agência Brasil
The financial market has raised its inflation forecast to 6.79% in Brazil this year, above the target set by the Central Bank. The projection appears in the Focus Bulletin, broadcast by the agency this Monday (2). The value is 0.23% higher than the forecast released last week of 6.56%. For next year, the National Extended Consumer Price Index (IPCA) estimate was 3.81%. In 2023 and 2024, the estimate is 3.25% and 3% respectively.
The financial markets estimate for the base interest rate – Selic – in 2021 is 7%, the same forecast as last week. By the end of 2022, it is estimated that the base rate will maintain this same level. For 2023 as for 2024, the forecast is 6.5% per year. Currently, the rate is 4.25%. This Tuesday (3) and Wednesday (4), the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) is holding, in Brasilia, the fifth meeting of the year to define the Selic, with a projection of a new increase.